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Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.

Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."

Appeal for More Extensive Debate

Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."